Ripple’s new collaboration with Web3 Salon that supports a Creator Economy in Japan has been refocusing a lot of this interest, and for good reason. Investing up to $200,000 per project into Web3 startups building on the XRP Ledger is a great way to get started. Access to Ripple’s global network? Even better! Mentorship, investor access, regulatory engagement? It all makes for a picture of a company doubling down on innovation and expansion. Is this a devious tactical genius stroke? Or is it, instead, an intentional retreat from what has basically become an SEC-led war zone?

Is Japan a Safe Haven?

Let’s face it, the timing is just plain suspect. While everyone’s been concentrating on the shiny new Web3 Salon deal, that SEC lawsuit is still hanging over him like the sword of Damocles. Ripple’s been tussling with the SEC for what seems like ages. Even as an eventual resolution appears to lie ahead, scars have formed. Until now, the American regulatory environment has been rather unfriendly towards crypto. Japan, by contrast, is just about rolling out the red carpet. Predictable rules, friendly administration – it’s the opposite of the America that crypto firms knew under the Trump administration.

Think of it like this: imagine you're a general fighting a war on two fronts. One front is a fight to the death in a bloody, brutal stalemate where each inch is dearly bought. The second is a tranquil, agricultural oasis blessed with bountiful natural beauty where the natives greet you with garlands of flowers. Which front would you prioritize?

All of this makes it easy to understand why Japan is such an alluring destination. Is it too attractive? Are we seeing the real deal – an expansion, or rather a tactical retreat from a doomed battle?

US Market Share, A Shrinking Piece?

Here's where we need to get real. Ripple’s expeditious growth here in the US, contrasted against its expansion over in Asia. It’s difficult to find accurate, independently verified market share data for Ripple. Yet, anecdotal evidence and the overall trend of the broader crypto market suggests that its performance is reversed. Additionally, XRP technically still has a foothold in the US. Regulatory uncertainty has slowed its adoption and integration with big banks.

Consider this: many US-based crypto exchanges delisted XRP following the SEC lawsuit. That’s certainly a significant hit on public accessibility and liquidity. In Japan, Ripple has an entrenched and powerful joint venture with SBI Holdings. Not to mention, it’s closed partnerships with major companies including HashKey DX and Mercari. Currently, projections indicate that as many as 80% of Japanese banks may implement XRP by the end of 2025. Eighty percent!

The numbers paint a stark picture: a struggling foothold in the US versus a booming ecosystem in Japan. It isn’t hard to understand why XRP should have Ripple’s full attention. That SEC lawsuit-induced angst is an even more significant consideration, though, and it’s fearfully dictating their actions.

The US market is massive. It is home to the world’s great economic engine. Even with its heightened regulatory challenges, it is still a must-win market for any company that wants to be successful worldwide.

Over-Reliance on the Land of the Rising Sun?

What happens if Japan's regulatory winds shift? What happens if a populist, left-wing, or nationalist government comes to power and starts cracking down on crypto? What if the predicted 80% adoption rate isn’t right? Ripple’s eggs would be all in one basket.

Frankly, this may be the most important point of all, the crypto world has a habit of throwing us curve balls. Remember Mt. Gox? Japan isn't immune to black swan events.

This is not to imply that Ripple’s Japan strategy is misguided. Diversification is generally a good thing. Japan’s welcoming regulatory environment is hard to ignore. Is it truly a substitute for the US market? Ripple would have to prove itself indeed with an eye towards the world if it stays parochially Asian.

Ultimately, only time will tell. Our new Web3 Salon partnership represents that kind of hopeful promise to us, without a doubt. It is very important to read past the coverage and analyze the true motivations and risks involved. Are they building a bridge to the future, or just seeking shelter from the storm? The answer, I imagine, is some combination of the two. That’s what makes this move such a fascinating and potentially risky gamble to watch. The only surprise to all of this will be how big the gamble actually is.