Could Trump's trade war have inadvertently lit the fuse on Bitcoin's latest explosive rally? Sounds crazy, right? That's what makes it worth exploring. I’m not here to argue the merits of that political decision, but rather to unpack a possible economic quirk that might change your approach to investing.

Tariffs and Crypto A Connection?

Let's get one thing straight: tariffs are generally seen as a drag on economic growth. Increasing tariffs drop the prices of their products, wreak havoc with national and global supply chains, and inject uncertainty. What if that economically-irrational uncertainty is exactly what’s fueling capital into the Bitcoin’s perceived safety September?

Think about it. When Trump announced those tariffs, markets reacted. We witnessed volatility, dips, and a pervasive lack of confidence. Just about then, Bitcoin began its ascent. Coincidence? Maybe. Now, we know correlation is not necessarily causation, but it sure can be an indicator.

Consider this chart of Bitcoin's price movement versus key dates in Trump's tariff announcements:

DateEventBitcoin Price (Approx.)
[Insert Fictional Date 1]Tariff Announcement on [Fictional Goods]$[Insert Fictional Value 1]
[Insert Fictional Date 2]90-Day Tariff Pause Announced$[Insert Fictional Value 2]
[Insert Fictional Date 3]Tariff Implementation on [Fictional Goods]$[Insert Fictional Value 3]

These dates and values are fictional and for illustrative purposes only.

See a potential pattern? That’s not to say at all that Trump purposefully wanted to pump Bitcoin. Far from it. He's been, at best, ambivalent towards crypto. His policies might have produced the ideal storm of dread and unpredictability, driving buyers to other belongings.

Hayes's Insight Market Instability

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMex, is “all in” on Bitcoin. He’s making comparisons to previous large rallies. He blames the recent run on market volatility and the risk of central banks resuming money printing. He even tosses a $150,000 year-end goal! That’s a bold prediction, but Hayes has been right before.

No, he thinks that the main culprit was the real surprise, the pause in the tariff rollout. It produced a time of extreme fluctuation on the market, making investors take another look at their portfolios. This makes sense. A full-blown trade war seems all but inevitable, but a pause? Now that’s the type of uncertainty that causes jitters.

Hayes further argued that in reaction to this fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD), monetary authorities would need to print additional money. Even more money going after the same amount of Bitcoin? Basic economics tells you what happens next: price goes up.

Safe Haven Or Risky Bet?

Thus, is Bitcoin a safe haven during economic chaos? That's the million-dollar question. Gold has long functioned that way, though Bitcoin is being viewed as a new digital alternative to the yellow metal.

Zach Pandl is Head of Research at Grayscale. To Davidson, Bitcoin’s purpose and potential are shown by the advantage it has received from the Federal Reserve’s concerns over a possible stagflation scenario. Unless you’re tone deaf, when the Fed starts to get worried, don’t you think you should at least be paying attention.

Let's be clear: Bitcoin is NOT without risks. It’s speculative, it’s the “wild west” (in many jurisdictions), and it’s rigged – in many cases, subject to extreme price manipulation. Don't go betting the farm on it. And as always, a diversified portfolio is the smartest long-term play.

So is the upside. If Bitcoin starts to succeed more widely as a store of value, the price will likely go to the moon. And if Trump’s protectionist policies lead to a recession, which many economists fear, that upside would be increased.

DYOR Always and Forever.

I'm not telling you to buy Bitcoin because of Trump's tariffs. But I do think there’s a compelling, if unusual, case connecting the two. We hope you’ll join us in drawing that important connection.

Do your own research. Understand the risks. And decide for yourself whether Bitcoin deserves a place in your portfolio. Don't just blindly follow the herd.

Remember that this is just one factor among many. Clarity is hard to achieve though, as the crypto market is by nature quite complicated and impacted by numerous multifaceted forces.

I am not going to attempt to recommend altcoins, or a "best" wallet. Those types of recommendations are pure advertising.

We know the possible $99K increase sounds thrilling, but please spend wisely. The world’s changing, and understanding these surprising links might just be your ticket to outsmarting the next evolution of finance.